Arakni, Marionette
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
42nd • 7-2-0
56%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
4.1
Surp
5.7
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Alessio Bouko (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Fee Sen Sei (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 43:57
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Clément LOUBIERE (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 78:22
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Chu Heng Eng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Gary Manttan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36
65:35
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs 岡本 一朗 (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35
55:45
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
40:60
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Nicholas Tran (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
45:55
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Mortal Chu (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
5.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R12 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R13 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R14 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R15 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
20th • 6-3-0
78%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
4.2
Surp
5.9
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Lee Kimball (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jason Chua (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Daniel Gilmartin (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Bartosz Dominiak (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Maximilian Klein (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Justin Fryar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
65:35
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Matthew Dilks (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34
Meta Fit
78% (7/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
5.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R13 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R14 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R15 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
22nd • 5-4-0
67%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
4.3
Surp
2.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jyunnosuke Yamamoto (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs John Cooper (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Choi Tae seong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Enes Findik (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nathaniel Jerald Bea (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
Round 12: Loss vs Thorbjørn Lind Jensen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
60:40
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38
40:60
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
45:55
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R12 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
| R13 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R14 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R15 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
78th • 5-4-0
78%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
4.4
Surp
4.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs KOHEI TAKANO (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45
Round 2: Loss vs Thorbjørn Lind Jensen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jeremy Guarober (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Dominic Chong (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
Round 12: Loss vs Yi Jun Loh (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
40:60
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Simon Nielsen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
65:35
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs RICARDO DIAZ (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36
65:35
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36
Meta Fit
78% (7/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (5.2 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.4 total deviation
Difficulty
4.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R12 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
| R13 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R14 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R15 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
56th • 4-5-0
44%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
4.7
Surp
2.6
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ben Dodd (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Emma Hollingsworth (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
Round 13: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Justin Fryar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
Round 15: Loss vs Pei-Tung Liao (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R13 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Loss |
| R14 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R15 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
29%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
3.3
Surp
0.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Martin Holík (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Andrew Ang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mortal Chu (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Wyatt Goehring (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs masaru okuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Matt Muus (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Austin Kim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R12 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R13 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Daniel Cooper (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Odi Winata (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Cubi Nguyen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36
Round 5: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Aziz Riphat (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Wiroon Juesathainrat (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Scott Mackenzie (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52
Round 2: Loss vs Kai Young Tan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Hariz Hamdan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.