Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
12 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
65th • 7-2-0
33%
Meta
+2.6
Perf
4.5
Surp
5.9
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Alan Rogers (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs masaru okuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jc Kairos (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Handy Wijaya (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Liang Choong Poh (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Xavier Aubert (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Connor Leverton (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
33% (3/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.5 total deviation
Difficulty
5.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R12 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R13 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R14 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R15 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
82nd • 5-4-0
56%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
4.1
Surp
1.3
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Eric Nguyễn (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Connor Leverton (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Isaac Katsakis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs David Lee (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Wiroon Juesathainrat (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Liang Choong Poh (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R13 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R14 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R15 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Michael Wilfred Luigi Sanicas (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ivan Teo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sam Sutherland (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Thorbjørn Lind Jensen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Gordon Koh Koh (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Sebastian Lim (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Michaele Teppa (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
Round 3: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Raine Karan (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs James Clark (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.5
Surp
2.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jeremiah Oldes (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Deitrich Mohan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
Round 3: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nelson Torres (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Cas Mulder (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 65:35
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 65% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Enes Findik (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Mykel Kramer (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Josh Lind (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dylan Thompson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Joel Gibbons (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.6
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jodey Burney (Unknown)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs David Yau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ethan Maher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59
Round 4: Loss vs Vincent Lim (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ivan Teo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.7
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mathias W (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Hangjune "Shu" Cho (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Zong Sheng Tan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
Round 1: Loss vs Fee Sen Sei (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Colin Tang (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Lukasz Bigos (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Brayden Pritchard (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Tan (Nickay) (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Mathew Fletcher (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
25%
Meta
-1.8
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Peng Joon (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Yorick Schulte (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Oh Oh (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.