Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at Pro Tour: Singapore 2025

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

kouji hamada

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nova Chan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Timothy Teo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sean Stanley (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs James Lewis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.58
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.97
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.89

KOHEI TAKANO

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chris Brummett (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Max de Wilde (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs James Clark (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 33:67

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.66
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Gennaro Ciampa Mango

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Catherine Levine (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andy Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 32:68

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lee Ming-Han (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Elaine Cao (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs SEAN STELL (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.29
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

George Chew

dropped • 1-4-0

20%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kazuki Itabashi (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs shirui wu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yuki Matsumoto (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marsha Ho (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew W (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.95
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.