Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X at National Championship 2025 - France
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
10 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
17th • 5-1-0
83%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
4.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nicolas Gardize (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Florian Bouteyron (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Louis Pecastaing (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Lucas Saillour (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55
90:10
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Killian HENRY (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 89:11
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs May Made (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
4.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 90% | Win |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
19th • 5-1-0
83%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
2.8
Surp
5.5
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs robin gasparini (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nicolas Gardize (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Oscar Magaldi (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Tom Simon (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Dylan Chavelard (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Sébastien Bondue (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
5.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
20th • 5-1-0
83%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
2.5
Surp
4.4
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hadrien Legallet (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Forte Adrien (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Vincent Degrandis (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 67:33
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Grégory Lefebvre (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Therssen Hugo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
4.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
44th • 5-1-0
100%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
2.5
Surp
3.0
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Simon EYRAGNE (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tom Simon (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dayvid Kayal (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Joris Masson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36
65:35
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Léo Toulouse (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 67:33
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Grégory Lefebvre (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Win |
| R12 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Loss |
51st • 4-2-0
100%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.7
Surp
3.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Gilles Molina (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs jean-baptiste debry--mournetas (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Vincent Degrandis (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 67:33
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Lucas RUZAFA (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 65:35
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Jonathan YUSTE (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Karl Cleuziou (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Loss |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Win |
47th • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.0
Surp
4.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Christophe Jourdan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Guarober (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Oscar Magaldi (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Martin Thullier (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Théo Marmisse (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
4.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R10 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R12 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Loss |
59th • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.5
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Grégory Lefebvre (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Simon EYRAGNE (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
90:10
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alexis VALENTIN (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 89:11
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Nicolas Pizzonero (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55
65:35
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Steve Pennec (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Martin Thullier (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 90% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R12 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.5
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Lucas RUZAFA (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Eric Steuer (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Louis Caubet (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 65:35
Round 10: Loss vs Alban Bonnefoux (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Martin Thullier (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Savinien Castel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
Round 3: Loss vs Adrien Krifa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.8
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Paul LE GOUEZ (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 89:11, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Valentin Jacqueline (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Etienne BARIOULET (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 90% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.