National Championship 2025 - France - Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X (CC)

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Eric Steuer

17th • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

5.4

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicolas Gardize (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Florian Bouteyron (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Louis Pecastaing (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Lucas Saillour (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Killian HENRY (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 66:34

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs May Made (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

5.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.57	2.02
R11	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Win	✓	0.34	1.11
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.52

Maxime Dumas

19th • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

6.0

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs robin gasparini (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nicolas Gardize (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Oscar Magaldi (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Tom Simon (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Dylan Chavelard (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Sébastien Bondue (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

6.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.12
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.18
R11	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Win	✗	0.56	2.16
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	2.05

Camille Colin

20th • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

5.2

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hadrien Legallet (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Forte Adrien (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Vincent Degrandis (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Grégory Lefebvre (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Therssen Hugo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

5.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.13
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.35
R10	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.29
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.66
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.81

Ulysse Bousquet

44th • 5-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

2.7

Surp

3.7

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Simon EYRAGNE (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tom Simon (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dayvid Kayal (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Joris Masson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Léo Toulouse (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Grégory Lefebvre (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.12
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.24
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.40
R11	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.42
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Nathanaël frederic

51st • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.9

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gilles Molina (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs jean-baptiste debry--mournetas (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Vincent Degrandis (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Lucas RUZAFA (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jonathan YUSTE (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Karl Cleuziou (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.38	1.16
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.51	2.06

Valentin Jacqueline

47th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

3.7

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christophe Jourdan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Guarober (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Oscar Magaldi (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Martin Thullier (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Théo Marmisse (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R10	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.56
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Thibaut BONNEL

59th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Grégory Lefebvre (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Simon EYRAGNE (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexis VALENTIN (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Nicolas Pizzonero (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Steve Pennec (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Martin Thullier (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.24
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.30
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.30
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Florian Bouteyron

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.5

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas RUZAFA (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eric Steuer (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Louis Caubet (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Alban Bonnefoux (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.52
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Faustin Falissard

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.3

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Martin Thullier (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Savinien Castel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adrien Krifa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Christophe Jourdan

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paul LE GOUEZ (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Valentin Jacqueline (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Etienne BARIOULET (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.