Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at National Championship 2025

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jeremy Guarober

50th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.0

Surp

5.4

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gwenaël Senmartin (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Théo Marmisse (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Valentin Jacqueline (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs simon diaz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Lucas RUZAFA (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Geoffroy Massard (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.10
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Win	✗	0.69	3.34

simon diaz

61st • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

3.0

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dylan Chavelard (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Achin (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs robin gasparini (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jeremy Guarober (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Félix BECARMIN (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Steve Pennec (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.22
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.24
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	2.58

Marc Alexandre

dropped • 3-2-0

20%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Therssen Hugo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cédric Florent (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs enzo costa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Adrien Krifa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Tom Simon (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.25
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.32
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.78
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Cedric Bernard

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Pierre Canali (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alban Bonnefoux (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Albert GUYO (Dash I/O) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.43
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.