Dash I/O at National Championship 2025

Dash I/O

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Albert GUYO

2nd • 7-2-0

78%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.4

Surp

6.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Lemerle (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aurélien Cordier (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Cedric Bernard (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Alexis VALENTIN (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Bastien LAVIGNON (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Evan Tanguy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Louis Guillot (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Bastien LAVIGNON (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

6.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.41
R10	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.71
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.94
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.00
R13	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.59
R14	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.19
R15	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Xavier Aubert

10th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Killian HENRY (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexandre Lebec (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Etienne Duruy (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Tom Escoffier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.11
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.42
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.40
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Aurélien Cordier

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Achin (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Albert GUYO (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Antoine Billy (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.