Azalea, Ace in the Hole at National Championship 2025

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Clément LOUBIERE

37th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

5.9

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexandre Murat (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 34:66

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Louis Duruy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Simon EYRAGNE (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Doriann LASSARA (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Geoffroy Massard (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Léo Toulouse (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

5.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.31
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.51
R12	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.61	2.70

May Made

22nd • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.2

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Forte Adrien (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs enzo costa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joris Masson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Louis Pecastaing (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Eric Steuer (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.13
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.45
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Etienne Duruy

39th • 2-4-0

17%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.5

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicolas Molinari (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tom Escoffier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Xavier Aubert (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Gilles Molina (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Geoffrey Donneger (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Terry Magrez (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.25
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R11	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Louis Pecastaing

41st • 1-5-0

83%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.1

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Corentin Guillemot (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paul Dollé (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Eric Steuer (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs May Made (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Pierre Canali (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Tom Simon (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.10
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Michael Lemerle

dropped • 3-0-0

33%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

2.2

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Albert GUYO (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nicolas Pizzonero (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marc Sion (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.43
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.55
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

Savinien Castel

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

Deck

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Brandt (Unknown)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Faustin Falissard (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.86
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.