National Championship 2025 - France - Ira, Scarlet Revenger (CC) - FaB-Results

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Geoffrey Donneger

25th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.3

Diff

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicolas Pizzonero (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67

Fang, Dracai of Blades

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dylan Chavelard (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan YUSTE (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Simon Duruy (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Etienne Duruy (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

Arakni, Marionette

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Clément Maillet (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.60
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.34
R10	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.32
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

57th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs CÉDRIC LIGNIER (Unknown)

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Paul LE GOUEZ (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 56:44

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Saillour (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67

Prism, Awakener of Sol

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Charles Tardif (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 66:34

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Ulysse Bousquet (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 42:58

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Clément LOUBIERE (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.34	1.01
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Ariela Randriamasy

55th • 2-4-0

17%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Félix BECARMIN (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexandre Murat (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 35:65

Prism, Awakener of Sol

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Paul Barthonnet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 66:34

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Pierre Canali (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

Arakni, Marionette

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Gaël Dorckel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Lucas Saillour (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.19
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.30
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Vincent Degrandis

dropped • 1-4-0

0%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bastien LAVIGNON (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Therssen Hugo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nathanaël frederic (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 42:58

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Camille Colin (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 42:58

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Nicolas Pizzonero (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.50
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

dropped • 1-2-0

0%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

Kassai of the Golden Sand

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cédric Florent (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 24:76

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Félix BECARMIN (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

Kano, Dracai of Aether

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mathieu Gomez (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.75
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.