Fang, Dracai of Blades at National Championship 2025

Fang, Dracai of Blades

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Théo Marmisse

31st • 5-1-0

50%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

5.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Antoine Billy (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jeremy Guarober (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Doriann LASSARA (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Gaël Dorckel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Bertrand Guillot (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Valentin Jacqueline (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.22
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.24
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.70
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.56	2.00
R11	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.90

Dylan Chavelard

42nd • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs simon diaz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Geoffrey Donneger (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dorian LOISON (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Nicolas Gardize (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Maxime Dumas (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Gaël Dorckel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R3	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.18
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Corentin Guillemot

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Louis Pecastaing (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 35:65

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mathieu Gomez (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 21:79

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gwenaël Senmartin (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.20

Thomas Chevrinais

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paul Dollé (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Charles Tardif (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tom Simon (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.11
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Robin Meunier

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Arthur Brunoni (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs robin gasparini (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alexandre Fourrier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.