Fai, Rising Rebellion at National Championship 2025 - France
Fai, Rising Rebellion
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
28th • 4-2-0
100%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
2.8
Surp
3.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sébastien Bondue (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Louis Caubet (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Thomas VUILLAUMIER (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
70:30
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Geoffroy Massard (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 70:30
R11
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Théo Marmisse (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R12
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Alexis VALENTIN (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R11 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.