Dorinthea Ironsong at National Championship 2025 - France
Dorinthea Ironsong
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
38th • 5-1-0
83%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
2.0
Surp
3.9
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Adrien Krifa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Enki Dupaquier (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 78:22
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Anthony Achin (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Steve Pennec (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
80:20
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Karl Cleuziou (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 78:22
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Etienne Duruy (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 80% | Win |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
58th • 3-3-0
0%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.2
Surp
4.1
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Florian Bouteyron (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Round 2: Win vs Arthur Brunoni (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Paul Dollé (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Nathanaël frederic (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 38:62
Round 11: Win vs Jeremy Guarober (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Charles Tardif (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
0% (0/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R10 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Loss |
| R11 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Win |
| R12 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
68th • 1-5-0
67%
Meta
-2.0
Perf
2.9
Surp
0.3
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Dominique JABES (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Clément LOUBIERE (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Paul Barthonnet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Doriann LASSARA (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Thomas VUILLAUMIER (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R10 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R12 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.7
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Maxime Dumas (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 38:62
Round 2: Win vs Robin Meunier (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs simon diaz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 28:72
Round 10: Loss vs Jonathan YUSTE (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 80% | Loss |
dropped • 1-1-1
67%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.5
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Pennec (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Steve Pennec (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Frank CLEMENT (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 78:22
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 80% | Draw |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Saillour (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68
Round 2: Loss vs Bertrand Guillot (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Florian Bouteyron (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.