Dorinthea Ironsong at National Championship 2025

Dorinthea Ironsong

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Terry Magrez

38th • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

2.1

Surp

4.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adrien Krifa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Enki Dupaquier (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Anthony Achin (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Steve Pennec (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Karl Cleuziou (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Etienne Duruy (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.13
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.15
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.25
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.85
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.63

Lucas RUZAFA

58th • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.3

Surp

4.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Florian Bouteyron (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Arthur Brunoni (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Paul Dollé (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Nathanaël frederic (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 35:65

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jeremy Guarober (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Charles Tardif (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.25
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.60
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R11	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.75	3.67
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Louis Duruy

68th • 1-5-0

83%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dominique JABES (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Clément LOUBIERE (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Paul Barthonnet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Doriann LASSARA (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Thomas VUILLAUMIER (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R12	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

robin gasparini

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Maxime Dumas (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Robin Meunier (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs simon diaz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75

75:25

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jonathan YUSTE (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

Kim Barroso

dropped • 1-1-1

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Pennec (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Steve Pennec (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Frank CLEMENT (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.50
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Draw	✓	0.73	-

Louis Caubet

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Saillour (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bertrand Guillot (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Florian Bouteyron (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.