Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at National Championship 2025 - France
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 8-1-0
67%
Meta
+3.2
Perf
4.2
Surp
8.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jonathan YUSTE (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Clément Maillet (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Sébastien Bondue (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35
75:25
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Louis Guillot (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Xavier Aubert (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
Round 13: Win vs Gilles Molina (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
60:40
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Bruno Marty (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42
40:60
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Albert GUYO (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
8.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R12 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R13 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R14 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Win |
| R15 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
5th • 5-2-0
57%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
3.5
Surp
6.0
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Etienne BARIOULET (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kevin Pennec (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Arthur Trehet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 10: Win vs Bastien LAVIGNON (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
Round 11: Win vs Vincent PROUM (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Albert GUYO (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
60:40
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Bruno Marty (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
6.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Win |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Win |
| R12 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R13 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Loss |
45th • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.9
Surp
5.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Etienne BARIOULET (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Geoffrey Donneger (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62
Round 10: Win vs robin gasparini (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Nathanaël frederic (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Killian HENRY (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
5.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 25% | Win |
| R11 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Loss |
12th • 2-4-0
33%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.9
Surp
2.5
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tom Simon (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Terry Magrez (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Laurent Lecomte (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
75:25
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Dominique JABES (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs May Made (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
30:70
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Vincent PROUM (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R11 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
40th • 2-4-0
33%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.2
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Bollier (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Olivier HENRY (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ulysse Bousquet (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
30:70
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Alban Bonnefoux (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
30:70
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Victor Bousch (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
54th • 2-4-0
50%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.6
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Florian Escande (Unknown)
Round 2: Loss vs Sébastien Bondue (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Cédric Florent (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Grégory Lefebvre (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68
25:75
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Terry Magrez (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Nathanaël frederic (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R11 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 25% | Loss |
| R12 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-1-1
33%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.7
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Thomas VUILLAUMIER (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Killian HENRY (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 50:50
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Kim Barroso (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 25% | Draw |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.