National Championship 2025 - France - Arakni, Marionette (CC)

Arakni, Marionette

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Clément Maillet

16th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.8

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Oscar Magaldi (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gaël Dorckel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Therssen Hugo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Paul Dollé (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Geoffrey Donneger (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.20
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.74
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R12	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.38	1.39

Gaël Dorckel

36th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.7

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicolas Nennig (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bastien LAVIGNON (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Clément Maillet (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Théo Marmisse (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Ariela Randriamasy (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Dylan Chavelard (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.22
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R11	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.38	1.27
R12	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	1.23

Alexandre Fourrier

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.6

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Olivier HENRY (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Oscar Magaldi (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Robin Meunier (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.62

Antonin Poubeau

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dorian LOISON (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Saillour (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Martin Thullier (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Killian Allouard

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Doriann LASSARA (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nicolas Nennig (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nicolas Pizzonero (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.88
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Gwenaël Senmartin

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jeremy Guarober (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Forte Adrien (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Corentin Guillemot (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.