Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2025

Arakni, Marionette

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Clément Maillet

16th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

3.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Oscar Magaldi (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gaël Dorckel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Therssen Hugo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Paul Dollé (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Geoffrey Donneger (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.13
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.53	1.79
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R12	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.99

Gaël Dorckel

36th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicolas Nennig (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bastien LAVIGNON (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Clément Maillet (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Théo Marmisse (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Ariela Randriamasy (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 71:29

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Dylan Chavelard (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.24
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R11	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.91
R12	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.65

Alexandre Fourrier

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Olivier HENRY (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Oscar Magaldi (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Robin Meunier (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Antonin Poubeau

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dorian LOISON (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Saillour (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Martin Thullier (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Killian Allouard

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Doriann LASSARA (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nicolas Nennig (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nicolas Pizzonero (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.95
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Gwenaël Senmartin

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jeremy Guarober (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Forte Adrien (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Corentin Guillemot (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.