Prism, Awakener of Sol at National Championship 2025

Prism, Awakener of Sol

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Gilles Molina

5th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nathanaël frederic (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joris Masson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alexandre Murat (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Etienne Duruy (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Sébastien Bondue (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Paul Dollé (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.16
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.48
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.89
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.86
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	1.17
R13	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Charles Tardif

53rd • 3-2-1

67%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Simon Duruy (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Chevrinais (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bidinger Mikael (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Léo Toulouse (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Oscar Magaldi (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Lucas RUZAFA (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R10	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R11	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.73
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.28

Martin Thullier

48th • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

3.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Faustin Falissard (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Laurent Lecomte (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Antonin Poubeau (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Killian HENRY (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Valentin Jacqueline (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Thibaut BONNEL (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.39
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R10	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.54	2.22

Paul Barthonnet

65th • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bruno Marty (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 85:15

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marc Sion (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 20:80

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ariela Randriamasy (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Louis Duruy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Lucas Saillour (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Antoine Billy (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.04
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.90
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Nicolas Molinari

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Etienne Duruy (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dorian LOISON (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Pennec (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.68

jean-baptiste debry--mournetas

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joris Masson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nathanaël frederic (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Pierre Canali (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.