Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty at Battle Hardened: Warsaw

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

17 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Florin-Cristian Loghin

3rd • 7-3-0

40%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

4.7

Surp

4.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christian Drabusenigg (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Evan Tanguy (Unknown)

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alessandro Altieri (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 76:24

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Wiktor Woźniak (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs 원률 신 (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Samuel Braben (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 19:81

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Faustin Falissard (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

20:80

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Samuel Braben (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

20:80

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jesse Härmälä (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

40% (4/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.12
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.12
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.28
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.60
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.81
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R9	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	20%	Win	✗	0.81	2.17
R10	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Daniel Winning

10th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jeremie Pohl (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michał Biereg (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Timo Cullmann (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Aleix Córdoba (Unknown)

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rain Ööpik (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 74:26

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Vasil Popov (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Gabe Sher (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.09
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.11
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.27
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.53
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.62
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Max Schmidt

13th • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Vulpe Razvan (Unknown)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Liam Holden (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 53:47

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Evan Tanguy (Unknown)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Giannis Karyotakis (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Dimitris Melissinos (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Artur Wysocki (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Bidinger Mikael (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jake Armes (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.50
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.60
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Bidinger Mikael

17th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.5

Surp

3.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ashkan Kamyab (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Zänker (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Faustin Falissard (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Metodi Nikolaev (Unknown)

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Adrian Quek (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Max Schmidt (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Kaloyan Nikov (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.13
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.90
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.20

Sebastian Piełudź

35th • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Zänker (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Konrad Weiss (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Piergiorgio Villani (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 53:47

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dziugas Skrupskelis (Unknown)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Quentin Leroy (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Yahir Peñarrubia (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Adrian Quek (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 43:57

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Marcus Karlsson (Unknown)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.58
R6	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.05
R8	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michał Kopeć

dropped • 1-7-0

75%

Meta

-3.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Isidoros Popovits (Unknown)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs janis bernhards (Unknown)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Arian Sultani (Unknown)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sharif Shaaban (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jakub "Lemur" Siedlecki (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 53:47

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs None (Unknown)

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Gergely Kovacs (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Michał Biereg (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-3.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-

Piotr Chudobinski

dropped • 4-2-1

57%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Bence Vereszki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rob Catton (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Giannis Karyotakis (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Oliver Kuhrt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Andres Dorogan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.17
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Draw	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.58
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.68
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.03
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-

Adrian Słowiński

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.7

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kamil Rejman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Evans (Unknown)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bence Vereszki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Liam Holden (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Robert Wernecke (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Adam Makowski (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.35
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.00
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Tamás Somoskövi

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Kyborg (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Paweł Rozynek (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tim Dasiukevich (Unknown)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs David Chirulescu (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Yahir Peñarrubia (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 53:47

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Stanislau Chykileuski (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 76:24

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.40
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.39

simon haesaerts

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dimitris Melissinos (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 58:42

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ruben Exposito (Unknown)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ashkan Kamyab (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Finn Labe (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Steinle (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.63
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Victor Reis

dropped • 1-4-0

20%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sharif Shaaban (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Florian Huepper (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rob Catton (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dennis Fröberg (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.24
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Sebastian Fauth

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Unknown)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thilo Focke (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Szots Daniel (Unknown)

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rene Aho (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-

Timo Cullmann

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kalle Kivilahti (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kamil Rejman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Pawel Kosminski (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	20%	Win	✗	0.81	0.60
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.22
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Tomasz Stanicki

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adrian Lee (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maciej Chmielewski (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aleix Córdoba (Unknown)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Adam Opalski

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Unknown)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jake Armes (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 58:42

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jurica Fejer (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Diego Paoletti

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Niklas Bengtsson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lorenzo Latino (Unknown)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Marcus Karlsson (Unknown)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michał Sierszulski

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jari Vincke (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 19:81

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Henrik Moilanen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 19:81

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lorenzo Petrone (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.