Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
16th • 6-2-0
50%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
3.7
Surp
3.8
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 30:70
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sebastian Piełudź (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Lorenzo Latino (Unknown)
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Samed Demir (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jesse Härmälä (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Wiktor Woźniak (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Gabe Sher (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs 원률 신 (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Unknown)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Viktor Sojka (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Szabolcs Egri (Unknown)
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tamás Somoskövi (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Sebastian Piełudź (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Haik Voskerchian (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Miłosz Wierzchoń (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs George Chew (Unknown)
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Max Dieckmann (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Martin Holík (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.2
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tim Sofsky (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Marco Lettieri (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Stef Ganchev (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jurica Fejer (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Sebastian Piełudź (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.2
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Luca Muratori (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 58:42
Round 2: Loss vs Adam Makowski (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Yahir Peñarrubia (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Marco Lettieri (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Van den Wyngaerde (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Michal Cwik (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Mariusz Wojciechowski (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.