Viserai, Rune Blood at Battle Hardened: Warsaw

Viserai, Rune Blood

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Felix Krisch

21st • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Piergiorgio Villani (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexandros Argyriou (Unknown)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Liam Holden (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Haik Voskerchian (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Vasil Popov (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Samuel Braben (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Faustin Falissard (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Andres Dorogan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.06
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.25
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.58
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Maximilian Schmidt

dropped • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.4

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marco Lettieri (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 72:28

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jesse Härmälä (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Henrik Moilanen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniele Frattarelli (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kalle Kivilahti (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.08
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.68
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.53
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.14
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Thilo Focke

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs simon diaz (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sebastian Fauth (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Ipakchian (Unknown)

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Fäldtman (Unknown)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Wojciech Andrusewicz (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Matthias Verbeeck (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.