Azalea, Ace in the Hole at Battle Hardened: Warsaw

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

12 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Anthony Vero Cerenzio

12th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Arian Sultani (Unknown)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ralph Schlauri (Unknown)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gabe Sher (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Vasil Popov (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jari Vincke (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Finn Labe (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jesse Härmälä (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Haik Voskerchian (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.27
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.93
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.73

Andres Dorogan

15th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

4.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tudor Todea (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Samuel Braben (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kamil Rejman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Martin Bergström (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Wiktor Woźniak (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Piotr Chudobinski (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Felix Krisch (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.11
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.44
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.70
R8	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Paweł Leszuk

22nd • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dziugas Skrupskelis (Unknown)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thore Ladicke (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ania Grudnowska (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Faustin Falissard (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tibor Csonka (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Dominik Šupa (Unknown)

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Liam Holden (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.35
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Michał Biereg

45th • 3-5-0

50%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Szots Daniel (Unknown)

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kaloyan Nikov (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Bino Nolting (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 42:58

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lorenzo Petrone (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Bence Vereszki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Dominik Popławski (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Michał Kopeć (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.53
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.94

Rene Aho

dropped • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthias Verbeeck (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Stanislau Chykileuski (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sebastian Fauth (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 73:27

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Grzegorz Pijas (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.29
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.38
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Stefano Meoni

dropped • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.7

Surp

4.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dominik Šupa (Unknown)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Mulato (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Clara Labe (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Piotr Chudobinski (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bidinger Mikael (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Pawel Kosminski (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.83
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.29
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.62
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Patrick Urfer

dropped • 1-5-0

100%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Unknown)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dominik Popławski (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Konrad Weiss (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alexander Fäldtman (Unknown)

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Athena Halkia (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jonathan Van den Wyngaerde

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hamish Chisholm Brown (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tibor Csonka (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Grzegorz Pijas (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mert Gezgin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tudor Todea (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Tomasz Żelazko

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Johannes Klaus (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Szymon Biesiekierski (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Unknown)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gustavo Stabelini (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.35
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Mert Gezgin

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alessandro Altieri (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dennis Fröberg (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Paweł Kręcki (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Van den Wyngaerde (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.35
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Julien Erdreich

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tim Dasiukevich (Unknown)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paweł Kręcki (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gergely Kovacs (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kamil Rejman

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adrian Słowiński (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Timo Cullmann (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andres Dorogan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.65
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.