Battle Hardened: Warsaw - Azalea, Ace in the Hole (CC)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

12 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Anthony Vero Cerenzio

12th • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Arian Sultani (Unknown)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ralph Schlauri (Unknown)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gabe Sher (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Vasil Popov (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jari Vincke (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Finn Labe (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jesse Härmälä (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Haik Voskerchian (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.34
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.57
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Andres Dorogan

15th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tudor Todea (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Samuel Braben (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kamil Rejman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Martin Bergström (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Wiktor Woźniak (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Piotr Chudobinski (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Felix Krisch (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.56
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.39
R8	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.96

Paweł Leszuk

22nd • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dziugas Skrupskelis (Unknown)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thore Ladicke (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ania Grudnowska (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Faustin Falissard (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tibor Csonka (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Dominik Šupa (Unknown)

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Liam Holden (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.40
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.68
R7	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Michał Biereg

45th • 3-5-0

62%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Szots Daniel (Unknown)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Winning (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kaloyan Nikov (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Bino Nolting (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lorenzo Petrone (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Bence Vereszki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Dominik Popławski (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Michał Kopeć (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.68
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.58

Rene Aho

dropped • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthias Verbeeck (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Stanislau Chykileuski (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sebastian Fauth (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Grzegorz Pijas (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.06
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.44
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Stefano Meoni

dropped • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dominik Šupa (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Mulato (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Clara Labe (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Piotr Chudobinski (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bidinger Mikael (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Pawel Kosminski (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.83
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.06
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.32
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Patrick Urfer

dropped • 1-5-0

100%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dominik Popławski (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Konrad Weiss (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alexander Fäldtman (Unknown)

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Athena Halkia (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jonathan Van den Wyngaerde

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hamish Chisholm Brown (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tibor Csonka (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Grzegorz Pijas (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mert Gezgin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tudor Todea (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.23
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tomasz Żelazko

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Johannes Klaus (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Szymon Biesiekierski (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Unknown)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gustavo Stabelini (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.45
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Mert Gezgin

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alessandro Altieri (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dennis Fröberg (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Paweł Kręcki (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Van den Wyngaerde (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.45
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Julien Erdreich

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tim Dasiukevich (Unknown)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paweł Kręcki (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gergely Kovacs (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kamil Rejman

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adrian Słowiński (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Timo Cullmann (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andres Dorogan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.53
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.