Fai, Rising Rebellion at Battle Hardened: Warsaw
Fai, Rising Rebellion
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 2-5-0
57%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.8
Surp
0.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Federico Sirri (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 48:52
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Andrei Joghiu (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 27:73
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Quentin Leroy (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 61:39
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Anthony Achin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 38:62
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Adam Makowski (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 27:73
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Metodi Nikolaev (Unknown)
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Athena Halkia (Unknown)
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.