Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at National Championship

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

David Kuric

16th • 5-1-0

33%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Stefan Hilderink (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bram bertens (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bart de Jong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kaloyan Nikov (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Bart van Koningsbruggen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Gabe Sher (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.18
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.43
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.68
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.77

Laurens Van der Beek

27th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

3.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mariusz Wojciechowski (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jun Lin Xie (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Aidan Wall (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Kaloyan Nikov (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Kevin Wiercx (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.92
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.39

Bart van Koningsbruggen

25th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eyüp Vroegop (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 58:42

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Robin Waij (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 31:69

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs David Kuric (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Dominic Rodgers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 80:20

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.48

René Schep

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kilian Schellekens (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	80%	Loss	✓	0.80	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.