Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X at National Championship 2025

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Benjamin Van donkelaar

9th • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

Deck

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Billy van Zaal (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Merijn Poorthuis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michel Radosevic (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Sander Neeft (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Hugo Platret (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.06
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R7	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.12
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Paul van Gijssel

12th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.4

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Wouter Ouwehand (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Moore (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lily-anne Hurkmans (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Nathan Doornenbal (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Hugo Platret (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Oliver Spapens (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.96
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.95
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Jun Lin Xie

20th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rob Thoen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Noah Cagle (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Laurens Van der Beek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Laurens Overgaauw (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Didier Deurloo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.12
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.45
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R8	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Bram bertens

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.4

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Giovanni Korsten (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Kuric (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gary White (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.40
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.