Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X at National Championship 2025

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Benjamin Van donkelaar

9th • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.7

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Billy van Zaal (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 87:13

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Merijn Poorthuis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michel Radosevic (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Sander Neeft (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Hugo Platret (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.03
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.31
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R7	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.87
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Paul van Gijssel

12th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Wouter Ouwehand (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Moore (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lily-anne Hurkmans (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Nathan Doornenbal (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 69:31

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Hugo Platret (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Oliver Spapens (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.62
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.87
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Jun Lin Xie

20th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rob Thoen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Noah Cagle (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Laurens Van der Beek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Laurens Overgaauw (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Didier Deurloo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.11
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.35
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Bram bertens

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Giovanni Korsten (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Kuric (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gary White (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.39
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.