National Championship 2025 - Netherlands - Verdance, Thorn of the Rose (CC)

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Oliver Spapens

3rd • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

5.1

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kaloyan Nikov (Dash I/O) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Dash I/O) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Moore (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 72:28

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Dominic Rodgers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 75:25

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Marcel Andrzejczak (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Laurens Overgaauw (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Dash I/O) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.18
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.37
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.80
R9	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.92
R10	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.70
R11	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Michael de Kok

18th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

4.0

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michiel Hasperhoven (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jeroen van der Wal (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Wessel Groot (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 76:24

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jasper de Riet (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Bart de Jong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Max de Wilde (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.20
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.59
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.64
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.62

Giovanni Korsten

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bram bertens (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Wiercx (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Beau Franz (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.59
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Ivan Grimaldo

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Didier Deurloo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Eyüp Vroegop (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Malyk Höfle (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.26
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Kerwin Holtslag

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Wiercx (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michel Radosevic (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeroen van der Wal (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.