Kano, Dracai of Aether at National Championship 2025

Kano, Dracai of Aether

Kano, Dracai of Aether

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Laurens Overgaauw

5th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.6

Diff

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michiel Flaton (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jun Lin Xie (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

Dash I/O

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Philip van Donselaar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Oliver Spapens (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00
R8	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.07
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

37th • 1-5-0

83%

Meta

-2.6

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Man Hiem Cheung (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15

Arakni, Marionette

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lily-anne Hurkmans (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 58:42

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Marcel Andrzejczak (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Michael de Kok (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Dorinthea Ironsong

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Janneke Verstappen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Tat Chuong Hua (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.04
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.