National Championship 2025 - Netherlands - Dash I/O (CC)

Dash I/O

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ian Zhang

1st • 8-1-0

89%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

5.6

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs René Schep (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Oliver Spapens (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dominic Rodgers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Sander Neeft (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Laurens Overgaauw (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Philip van Donselaar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Oliver Spapens (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jaap IJlst (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

5.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.08
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.23
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.18
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.98
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.65
R9	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.86
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.29
R12	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33

Jaap IJlst

2nd • 8-1-0

78%

Meta

+3.5

Perf

4.5

Surp

5.7

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Samed Demir (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michiel Hasperhoven (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Benjamin Van donkelaar (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Philip van Donselaar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Ian Zhang (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Didier Deurloo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

5.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.08
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.17
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Win	✗	0.72	0.62
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.12
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.68
R9	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.85
R11	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.22
R12	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Didier Deurloo

3rd • 7-1-0

75%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

5.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ivan Grimaldo (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Selene van Vlijmen (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Peter Markovič (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Bart de Jong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jun Lin Xie (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Lily-anne Hurkmans (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Hugo Platret (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.13
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Win	✗	0.76	0.52
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.29
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.67
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.44
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.01
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.96
R11	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kaloyan Nikov

36th • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Oliver Spapens (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michiel Flaton (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Wouter Ouwehand (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs David Kuric (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Laurens Van der Beek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Richard Kruithof (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R9	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.07

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.