National Championship 2025 - Netherlands - Jarl Vetreiði (CC)

Jarl Vetreiði

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Rob van der Burgh

35th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.5

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bart van Koningsbruggen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Dash I/O) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 30:70

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Kevin Wiercx (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Samed Demir (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.10
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R3	CC	Dash I/O	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.10

David Moore

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hao Ru Wu (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Oliver Spapens (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kevin Wiercx (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.35
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Andres Sandoval Mendez

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Max de Wilde (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 70:30

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bart de Jong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.17
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.