Jarl Vetreiði at National Championship 2025

Jarl Vetreiði

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Rob van der Burgh

35th • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

3.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 69:31

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bart van Koningsbruggen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 18:82

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Kevin Wiercx (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64

30:70

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Samed Demir (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.09
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.41
R3	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Win	✗	0.68	2.49

David Moore

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hao Ru Wu (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Oliver Spapens (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kevin Wiercx (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Andres Sandoval Mendez

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Max de Wilde (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bart de Jong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.22
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.