Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2025

Arakni, Marionette

Arakni, Marionette

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Lily-anne Hurkmans

10th • 5-1-0

33%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

4.2

Diff

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bradley Wayburne (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Kano, Dracai of Aether

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jasper de Riet (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Max de Wilde (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Dash I/O

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Didier Deurloo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.41
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.37
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.36
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.87
R9	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

34th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kerwin Holtslag (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Giovanni Korsten (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56

Puffin, Hightail

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eyüp Vroegop (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37

Jarl Vetreiði

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs David Moore (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 64:36

Jarl Vetreiði

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 64:36

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Laurens Van der Beek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.74
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.85
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.47	-

dropped • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

3.0

Diff

Fang, Dracai of Blades

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Cagle (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44

Puffin, Hightail

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Wessel Groot (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ivan Grimaldo (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kilian Schellekens (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.89
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.75

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.