National Championship 2025 - Netherlands - Arakni, Marionette (CC)

Arakni, Marionette

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Lily-anne Hurkmans

10th • 5-1-0

67%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

2.7

Surp

3.2

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bradley Wayburne (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jasper de Riet (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Max de Wilde (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Didier Deurloo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.10
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.32
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.06
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.36
R9	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Kevin Wiercx

34th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.4

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kerwin Holtslag (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Giovanni Korsten (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eyüp Vroegop (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs David Moore (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Laurens Van der Beek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.95
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.08
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Malyk Höfle

dropped • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.9

Surp

2.3

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Cagle (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Wessel Groot (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ivan Grimaldo (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kilian Schellekens (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.84
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.36	1.13

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.