National Championship 2025 - Netherlands - Vynnset, Iron Maiden (CC)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Max de Wilde

22nd • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andres Sandoval Mendez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 30:70

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Wouter Ouwehand (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Vincent de Wildt (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Lily-anne Hurkmans (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

25:75

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Michael de Kok (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.10
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.72
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Nathan Doornenbal

32nd • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Niels Vos (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Noah Cagle (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Janneke Verstappen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Aidan Wall

dropped • 1-4-0

20%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dominic Rodgers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mariusz Wojciechowski (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 30:70

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Man Hiem Cheung (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Laurens Van der Beek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R2	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.54
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Thomas van Dijk

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sander Neeft (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kurt Vooys (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Stefan Hilderink (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.10
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.31

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.