Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2025

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Max de Wilde

22nd • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andres Sandoval Mendez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Wouter Ouwehand (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Vincent de Wildt (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Lily-anne Hurkmans (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

20:80

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Michael de Kok (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.11
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.70
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

Nathan Doornenbal

32nd • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Niels Vos (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 31:69

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Noah Cagle (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Janneke Verstappen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Aidan Wall

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dominic Rodgers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mariusz Wojciechowski (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Man Hiem Cheung (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Laurens Van der Beek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R2	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.40
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Thomas van Dijk

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sander Neeft (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kurt Vooys (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Stefan Hilderink (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.27
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.32

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.