Prism, Awakener of Sol at National Championship 2025

Prism, Awakener of Sol

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Gaál Benjamin

21st • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kurt Vooys (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gabe Sher (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Hugo Platret (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jeroen van der Wal (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Noah Cagle (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.56
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R9	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

Samed Demir

40th • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Stefan Hilderink (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rob Thoen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Michiel Flaton (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Tat Chuong Hua (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.10
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.54
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

Stefan Hilderink

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Kuric (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Samed Demir (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas van Dijk (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 20:80

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Niels Vos (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.62
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Wouter Ouwehand

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Max de Wilde (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 20:80

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kaloyan Nikov (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.36

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.