Kassai of the Golden Sand at National Championship 2025

Kassai of the Golden Sand

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Gabe Sher

23rd • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Laurent Michaud (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gaál Benjamin (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andres Sandoval Mendez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Hao Ru Wu (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Stefan Hilderink (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 69:31

30:70

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs David Kuric (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.12
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.17
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.73
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Sander Neeft

19th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thomas van Dijk (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tom Kruijsen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Dash I/O) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Benjamin Van donkelaar (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.22
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.55
R7	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Robert van der Padt

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kilian Schellekens (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hugo Platret (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michiel Hasperhoven (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tat Chuong Hua (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Thomas van den Berg

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Merijn Poorthuis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tat Chuong Hua (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mariusz Wojciechowski (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.47
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.