Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at National Championship

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Michel Radosevic

24th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

3.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Wessel Groot (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kerwin Holtslag (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Van donkelaar (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Selene van Vlijmen (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 77:23

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Laurent Michaud (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Beau Franz (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.14
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.15
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.44
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Win	✗	0.71	2.39
R9	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Marcel Andrzejczak

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gary White (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

90:10

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Richard Kruithof (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 92:8

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jasper de Riet (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Beau Franz (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Oliver Spapens (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	90%	Win	✓	0.08	0.05
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.46
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

Merijn Poorthuis

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thomas van den Berg (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Van donkelaar (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Calum Young (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Mark Henderson

dropped • 0-2-1

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Niels Vos (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Robin Waij (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 25:75

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Billy van Zaal (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Draw	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.