National Championship 2025 - Netherlands - Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter (CC)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Michel Radosevic

24th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

3.1

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Wessel Groot (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kerwin Holtslag (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Van donkelaar (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Selene van Vlijmen (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 67:33

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Laurent Michaud (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Beau Franz (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.16
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.68
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.66	2.05
R9	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Marcel Andrzejczak

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gary White (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Richard Kruithof (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jasper de Riet (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Beau Franz (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Oliver Spapens (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.28
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.52
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Merijn Poorthuis

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thomas van den Berg (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Van donkelaar (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Calum Young (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.39
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Mark Henderson

dropped • 0-2-1

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Niels Vos (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Robin Waij (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Billy van Zaal (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Draw	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.