Katsu, the Wanderer at National Championship 2025

Katsu, the Wanderer

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Robin Waij

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tom Kruijsen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mark Henderson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bart van Koningsbruggen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Eyüp Vroegop (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.66
R7	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Daan Barten

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Calum Young (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Philip van Donselaar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hugo Platret (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.26
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.51
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Billy van Zaal

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

Deck

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Van donkelaar (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 21:79

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Vincent de Wildt (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mark Henderson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.