Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at National Championship 2025 - Finland
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
2nd • 7-2-0
78%
Meta
+2.1
Perf
4.0
Surp
3.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Jan Ojamaa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jiahao Chen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ville Ahtiainen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jesse Härmälä (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42
75:25
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Ville Schalin (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
Round 9: Loss vs Pauli Viimaranta (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
30:70
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Kalle Kivilahti (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
78% (7/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R7 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R12 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
5th • 5-2-0
86%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
2.6
Surp
2.4
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tuomas Lampinen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 65:35
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jyry Soinio (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kalle Kivilahti (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68
75:25
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Ville Schalin (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Pauli Viimaranta (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
65:35
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Jirka Ilomäki (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Valentin Soloviev (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R9 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-1-1
67%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.1
Surp
0.5
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Riku Majamaa (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Reetta Raitanen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dmitry Petrov (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Draw |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
dropped • 0-2-1
67%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Juha-Matti Pihlajamäki (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Jan Hell (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67
Round 3: Loss vs Lauri Vuorinen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Draw |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-1
67%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Laura Väisälä (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Antti Humalamäki (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Antton Valkama (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Draw |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Matti Salmi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Fredrik Mecklin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Heidi Lehikoinen (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.