National Championship 2025 - Finland - Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter (CC)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Valentin Soloviev

2nd • 7-2-0

78%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.7

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jan Ojamaa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jiahao Chen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ville Ahtiainen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jesse Härmälä (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ville Schalin (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Pauli Viimaranta (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Kalle Kivilahti (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.17
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.21
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.16
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.68
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.43
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.11
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.90
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Tuomas Kainulainen

5th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.7

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tuomas Lampinen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jyry Soinio (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kalle Kivilahti (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ville Schalin (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Pauli Viimaranta (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jirka Ilomäki (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Valentin Soloviev (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.08
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.20
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.49
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.85
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.06
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Antti Humalamäki

dropped • 1-1-1

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.5

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Riku Majamaa (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Reetta Raitanen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dmitry Petrov (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.49

Lari Lampainen

dropped • 0-2-1

33%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Juha-Matti Pihlajamäki (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Jan Hell (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lauri Vuorinen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Draw	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Reetta Raitanen

dropped • 0-2-1

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Laura Väisälä (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Antti Humalamäki (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Antton Valkama (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Aleksanteri Tamminen

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matti Salmi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Fredrik Mecklin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Heidi Lehikoinen (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.