Fang, Dracai of Blades at National Championship 2025

Fang, Dracai of Blades

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Matias Viitasalo

15th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Laura Kauhanen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs August Rokkanen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Riku Majamaa (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Mikael Kullström (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Michael Captain (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 67:33

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Rene Aho (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.21
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.84
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.78
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Antton Valkama

24th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

3.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ville Schalin (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Henrik Moilanen (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Reetta Raitanen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Adrien Delacroix (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Henry Hyttinen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Valtteri Laine (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.17
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.60
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Jan Hell

30th • 0-5-1

50%

Meta

-3.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Captain (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Lari Lampainen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mika Vainio (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tero Sainomaa (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Fredrik Mecklin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Henry Hyttinen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-3.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Draw	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.