National Championship 2025 - Finland - Oscilio, Constella Intelligence (CC)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kalle Kivilahti

1st • 8-1-0

89%

Meta

+3.3

Perf

4.3

Surp

5.2

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hannu Riipinen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tommi Vornanen (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ilmari Lahtinen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jirka Ilomäki (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Ilmari Lahtinen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jirka Ilomäki (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Valentin Soloviev (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

5.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.20
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.18
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.70
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.87
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R10	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.01
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.19
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.82

Fredrik Mecklin

27th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.3

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Pauli Viimaranta (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aleksanteri Tamminen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Otso Somerla (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Valtteri Laine (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jan Hell (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Adrien Delacroix (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.64
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.47

Lauri Koivisto

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jani Leinonen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dmitry Petrov (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Captain (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.60
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.