Jarl Vetreiði at National Championship 2025

Jarl Vetreiði

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jirka Ilomäki

3rd • 5-3-0

25%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jesse Härmälä (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Antti Tikkakoski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rene Aho (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Pauli Viimaranta (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Kalle Kivilahti (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Pauli Viimaranta (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Kalle Kivilahti (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.14
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.13
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.28
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.30
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.86
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Laura Kauhanen

5th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matias Viitasalo (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matti Munukka (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Quang Vu (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Hannu Riipinen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Tommi Vornanen (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 77:23

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Ilmari Lahtinen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.75
R8	CC	Puffin, Hightail	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.43
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.84
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Adrien Delacroix

29th • 1-5-0

50%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Valtteri Laine (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Henry Hyttinen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Luna Zitting (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Antton Valkama (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Laura Väisälä (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Fredrik Mecklin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.87
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.