Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2025 - Finland

Arakni, Marionette

Arakni, Marionette

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ville Teräväinen

3rd • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.9

Diff

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Quentin Leroy (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Pauli Viimaranta (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eero Aho (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Kassai of the Golden Sand

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs August Rokkanen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Mikael Kullström (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Kalle Kivilahti (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

Jarl Vetreiði

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Laura Kauhanen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 64:36

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Valentin Soloviev (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.53
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.47
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.75
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.53	1.21
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.80
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Pauli Viimaranta

5th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.7

Diff

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Fredrik Mecklin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Juha Saarnilampi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Jarl Vetreiði

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jirka Ilomäki (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Valentin Soloviev (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Jarl Vetreiði

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jirka Ilomäki (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.53	0.15
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.84
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Juha Saarnilampi

13th • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

4.1

Diff

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matti Munukka (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

Puffin, Hightail

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Captain (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Pauli Viimaranta (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jyry Soinio (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Antti Tikkakoski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

Prism, Awakener of Sol

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Riku Majamaa (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.12
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.86
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.56
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.39

20th • 5-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

3.9

Diff

Jarl Vetreiði

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adrien Delacroix (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 64:36

Prism, Awakener of Sol

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Riku Majamaa (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jiahao Chen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Fredrik Mecklin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Hannu Riipinen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

Fang, Dracai of Blades

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Antton Valkama (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.11
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.35
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.53	1.25
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.94
R9	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.24

26th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.5

Diff

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tero Sainomaa (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56

Jarl Vetreiði

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adrien Delacroix (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 64:36

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ilmari Lahtinen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62

Prism, Awakener of Sol

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Riku Majamaa (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47

Fang, Dracai of Blades

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Antton Valkama (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44

Fang, Dracai of Blades

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jan Hell (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.21
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.24

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.