National Championship 2025 - Finland - Arakni, Marionette (CC)

Arakni, Marionette

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ville Teräväinen

3rd • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.8

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Quentin Leroy (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Pauli Viimaranta (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eero Aho (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs August Rokkanen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Mikael Kullström (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Kalle Kivilahti (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Laura Kauhanen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Valentin Soloviev (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.08
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.38
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.52
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.64
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.17
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.01
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Pauli Viimaranta

5th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.6

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Fredrik Mecklin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Juha Saarnilampi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jirka Ilomäki (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Valentin Soloviev (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jirka Ilomäki (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.15
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.69
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Juha Saarnilampi

13th • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

4.1

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matti Munukka (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Captain (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Pauli Viimaranta (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jyry Soinio (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Antti Tikkakoski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Riku Majamaa (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.12
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.84
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.21
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.75

Valtteri Laine

20th • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

3.6

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adrien Delacroix (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Riku Majamaa (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jiahao Chen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Fredrik Mecklin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Hannu Riipinen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Antton Valkama (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.14
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.35
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.22
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.94
R9	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.92

Henry Hyttinen

26th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tero Sainomaa (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adrien Delacroix (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ilmari Lahtinen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Riku Majamaa (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Antton Valkama (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jan Hell (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R9	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.92

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.