Levia, Shadowborn Abomination at National Championship 2025

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Heidi Lehikoinen

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.7

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Emmi Pelkonen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 17:83

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jani Laatunen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aleksanteri Tamminen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Luna Zitting

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ilmari Lahtinen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 31:69

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mikael Kullström (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adrien Delacroix (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Quentin Leroy

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eero Aho (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 31:69

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jan Ojamaa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.