Kassai of the Golden Sand at National Championship 2025

Kassai of the Golden Sand

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

August Rokkanen

16th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jarko Räisänen (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matias Viitasalo (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jyry Soinio (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 31:69

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Emmi Pelkonen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Mikael Kullström (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R8	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.96
R9	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Jani Laatunen

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jiahao Chen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Heidi Lehikoinen (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tuomas Lampinen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Juha-Matti Pihlajamäki

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lari Lampainen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jani Leinonen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hannu Pentinpuro (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.38
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.