National Championship 2025 - Finland - Azalea, Ace in the Hole (CC)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Rene Aho

11th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.4

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dmitry Petrov (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Emmi Pelkonen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jirka Ilomäki (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Antti Tikkakoski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ilmari Lahtinen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Matias Viitasalo (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.14
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.43
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.92
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R9	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.93

Hannu Riipinen

28th • 1-5-0

50%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kalle Kivilahti (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lauri Vuorinen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jesse Härmälä (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Laura Kauhanen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Valtteri Laine (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Laura Väisälä (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Otso Somerla

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mika Vainio (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ville Schalin (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Fredrik Mecklin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.49

Jiahao Chen

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jani Laatunen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Valentin Soloviev (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Valtteri Laine (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.30
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Matti Munukka

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Juha Saarnilampi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Laura Kauhanen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mikael Kullström (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.87
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.