Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at National Championship 2025

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ville Schalin

9th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Antton Valkama (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Otso Somerla (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jani Leinonen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 80:20

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Valentin Soloviev (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73

95:5

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Michael Captain (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 96:4

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.12
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.40
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.16
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R9	CC	Puffin, Hightail	95%	Win	✓	0.04	0.08

Tero Sainomaa

22nd • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Henry Hyttinen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matti Salmi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 75:25

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Laura Väisälä (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jan Hell (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Riku Majamaa (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Antti Tikkakoski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.14
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.14
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	80%	Loss	✓	0.80	-
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.86
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Ville Ahtiainen

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.3

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lauri Lehto (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 82:18

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ilmari Lahtinen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 80:20

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Valentin Soloviev (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.09
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.22
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Lauri Vuorinen

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jyry Soinio (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hannu Riipinen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lari Lampainen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.87

Dmitry Petrov

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rene Aho (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lauri Koivisto (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Antti Humalamäki (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.