Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at National Championship 2025 - Finland
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
19th • 4-2-0
50%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
2.1
Surp
2.2
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Aleksanteri Tamminen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tero Sainomaa (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Henrik Moilanen (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 62:38
75:25
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Eero Aho (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25
15:85
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jesse Härmälä (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 15:85
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Emmi Pelkonen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R8 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 15% | Loss |
| R9 | Dash I/O | 60% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.