National Championship 2025 - Finland - Vynnset, Iron Maiden (CC)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ilmari Lahtinen

5th • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.5

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luna Zitting (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ville Ahtiainen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Henry Hyttinen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kalle Kivilahti (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Rene Aho (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

30:70

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Laura Kauhanen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 30:70

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Kalle Kivilahti (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.08
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.42
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.96
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Laura Väisälä

25th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.6

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Reetta Raitanen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Red Itärinne (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tero Sainomaa (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Captain (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Adrien Delacroix (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 30:70

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Hannu Riipinen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.27
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.10
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.00
R7	CC	Puffin, Hightail	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.25

Eero Aho

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Olli Saarinen (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Quentin Leroy (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Matti Salmi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.27
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Jani Leinonen

dropped • 2-1-0

Meta

+0.8

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lauri Koivisto (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Juha-Matti Pihlajamäki (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ville Schalin (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (1.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.37
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.79
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Tuomas Lampinen

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jan Ojamaa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jani Laatunen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (1.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.52
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.19

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.