Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2025

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ilmari Lahtinen

5th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luna Zitting (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ville Ahtiainen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Henry Hyttinen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kalle Kivilahti (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Rene Aho (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Laura Kauhanen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Kalle Kivilahti (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.08
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.29
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.96
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Laura Väisälä

25th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Reetta Raitanen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Red Itärinne (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tero Sainomaa (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Captain (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Adrien Delacroix (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Hannu Riipinen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.25
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.11
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Win	✗	0.80	1.15
R7	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.25

Eero Aho

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Olli Saarinen (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Quentin Leroy (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Matti Salmi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.27
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Jani Leinonen

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lauri Koivisto (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Juha-Matti Pihlajamäki (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ville Schalin (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (1.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.49
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

Tuomas Lampinen

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jan Ojamaa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jani Laatunen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.38
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.