Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
10th • 5-1-0
67%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
2.4
Surp
2.5
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tomas Espejel (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Gaston Zagursky (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Osmar Bravo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs HIROKI ASAUMI (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Tulio Marquez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
70:30
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Ernesto Manzur (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 72:28
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R9 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Win |
22nd • 4-2-0
50%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
2.9
Surp
3.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Roberto Busnelli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs David Soberanis (Dash I/O) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jesús Mercado (Dash I/O) - Expected: 52:48
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Eduardo mauricio Gonzalez abrego (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 67:33
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Diego Alejandro Correa Miramontes (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Rodrigo Iñiguez (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
33rd • 3-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.5
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Manuel Curiel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
Round 2: Loss vs Luis Manuel García Luna Perez (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Luis Canche (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Round 7: Loss vs OMAR MATA (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
75:25
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Luis Eduardo Garcia Mena (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 76:24
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Moroni Hernández Monroy (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Puffin, Hightail | 75% | Win |
| R9 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
36th • 2-4-0
83%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Osmar Bravo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
Round 2: Win vs Jose Luis Zuñiga Rodríguez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
Round 3: Loss vs Rafael Eduardo Jaimes Hurtado (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
75:25
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Luis Eduardo Garcia Mena (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 76:24
Round 8: Loss vs Braulio Mora (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs David Vargas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Loss |
| R7 | Puffin, Hightail | 75% | Win |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Loss |
| R9 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-1-1
33%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.8
Surp
1.8
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Eduardo Daniel García Reyes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Eduardo mauricio Gonzalez abrego (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 67:33
Round 3: Win vs Jose Luis Zuñiga Rodríguez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Draw |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Fernando Valenzuela (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Emiliano Tatan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Roberto Busnelli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.