National Championship 2025 - Mexico - Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter (CC)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Tulio Marquez

2nd • 5-4-0

33%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.2

Surp

4.9

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs OMAR MATA (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joseph Sierra (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 67:33

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Miguel Rubio (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Eduardo Daniel García Reyes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Emmanuel Rojas (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67

20:80

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Diego de Alba Montes (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Miguel Rubio (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Osmar Bravo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.16
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.13
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.43
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Win	✗	0.78	2.40
R11	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.80
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Natanael Eguren

37th • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rodrigo Iñiguez (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Manuel Alejandro Sánchez Romo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 22:78

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Emiliano Tatan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs César Barajas (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Luis Eduardo Garcia Mena (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R8	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R9	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Marco Palma

dropped • 1-1-1

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.4

Diff

Deck

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Diego de Alba Montes (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 22:78

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luis Franco (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Julio Heredia (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Draw	✗	0.22	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.44
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Oliver Lopez

dropped • 1-1-1

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eduardo Daniel García Reyes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs KI JO HAN KIM (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Draw	✗	0.33	-

Ricardo Castillo

dropped • 0-2-1

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Luis Canche (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ernesto Manzur (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Braulio Mora (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

Jose Luis Zuñiga Rodríguez

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Emmanuel Rojas (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Moroni Hernández Monroy (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Eduardo Castillo Trujillo (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.