National Championship 2025 - Mexico - Puffin, Hightail (CC)

Puffin, Hightail

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

David Lewis

3rd • 5-3-0

25%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

5.3

Diff

Deck

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Oscar Vargas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 21:79

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luis Angel Vazquez (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Emmanuel Rojas (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jesús Mercado (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Miguel Rubio (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 46:54

20:80

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Oscar Vargas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Osmar Bravo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

5.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.53
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.58
R8	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.21
R9	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Win	✗	0.79	2.84
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Luis Eduardo Garcia Mena

38th • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Noe Perez (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Saúl Orozco Albiter (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Carlos Gerardo Lopez (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Moroni Hernández Monroy (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 24:76

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs David Vargas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 24:76

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Natanael Eguren (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.37
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.60

Noe Perez

dropped • 1-1-1

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.3

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luis Eduardo Garcia Mena (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs luis alberto de la rosa muñoz (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 77:23

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rodrigo Iñiguez (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	75%	Draw	✓	0.77	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.