Puffin, Hightail at National Championship 2025 - Mexico

Puffin, Hightail

Puffin, Hightail

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

3rd • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

5.2

Diff

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Oscar Vargas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luis Angel Vazquez (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Arakni, Marionette

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Prism, Awakener of Sol

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Emmanuel Rojas (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40

Dash I/O

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jesús Mercado (Dash I/O) - Expected: 56:44

Fang, Dracai of Blades

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Miguel Rubio (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

20:80

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Oscar Vargas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

15:85

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Osmar Bravo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

5.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.54
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.64
R8	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83
R9	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Win	✗	0.81	2.96
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

Luis Eduardo Garcia Mena

38th • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.3

Diff

Puffin, Hightail

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Noe Perez (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Fang, Dracai of Blades

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Saúl Orozco Albiter (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Dash I/O

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Carlos Gerardo Lopez (Dash I/O) - Expected: 56:44

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

5:95

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Moroni Hernández Monroy (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 4:96

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

5:95

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs David Vargas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 4:96

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Natanael Eguren (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.53
R3	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	5%	Loss	✗	0.04	-
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	5%	Loss	✗	0.04	-
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.80

dropped • 1-1-1

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

Puffin, Hightail

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luis Eduardo Garcia Mena (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs luis alberto de la rosa muñoz (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rodrigo Iñiguez (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.