Azalea, Ace in the Hole at National Championship 2025

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Octavio chaparro beltran

30th • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.3

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Soberanis (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Carlos Vazquez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs HIROKI ASAUMI (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Luis Canche (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Carlo Villarreal (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jesús Mercado (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.17
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.83
R9	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Roberto Gael Busnelli Cifuentes

32nd • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Vigneo Guzman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs César Barajas (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Carlo Villarreal (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Julio Heredia (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Emmanuel Rojas (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs luis alberto de la rosa muñoz (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.13
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.17
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R9	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.99

Rodrigo Iñiguez

25th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.9

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Natanael Eguren (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs KI JO HAN KIM (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Noe Perez (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Carlos Vazquez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ernesto Manzur (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jonathan Sanchez (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.50
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Julio Heredia

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Emiliano Tatan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jesús Mercado (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marco Palma (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Roberto Gael Busnelli Cifuentes (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.32
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.