Dash I/O at National Championship 2025

Dash I/O

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Carlos Gerardo Lopez

21st • 5-1-0

33%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

2.7

Surp

4.4

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mario Gomez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 83:17

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Manuel Curiel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Luis Eduardo Garcia Mena (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Rafael Eduardo Jaimes Hurtado (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Gaston Zagursky (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Joseph Sierra (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.04
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.60
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.67
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.91

Jesús Mercado

19th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.0

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luis Manuel García Luna Perez (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 74:26

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Julio Heredia (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Sanchez (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Diego de Alba Montes (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs David Lewis (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Octavio chaparro beltran (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.07
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.55
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	CC	Puffin, Hightail	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.14

David Soberanis

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Octavio chaparro beltran (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Sanchez (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Diego Alejandro Correa Miramontes (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.