National Championship 2025 - Mexico - Dash I/O (CC)

Dash I/O

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Carlos Gerardo Lopez

21st • 5-1-0

50%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

6.1

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mario Gomez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Manuel Curiel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Luis Eduardo Garcia Mena (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Rafael Eduardo Jaimes Hurtado (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Gaston Zagursky (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

25:75

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Joseph Sierra (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

6.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.09
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.34
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Win	✗	0.72	2.16
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Win	✗	0.76	3.12

Jesús Mercado

19th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.0

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luis Manuel García Luna Perez (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Julio Heredia (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Sanchez (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Diego de Alba Montes (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs David Lewis (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Octavio chaparro beltran (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.12
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.14

David Soberanis

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Octavio chaparro beltran (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Sanchez (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Diego Alejandro Correa Miramontes (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.