Kassai of the Golden Sand at National Championship 2025 - Mexico
Kassai of the Golden Sand
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
15th • 3-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.4
Diff
85:15
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Eduardo mauricio Gonzalez abrego (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 83:17
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 51:49
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Fernando Valenzuela (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Oscar Vargas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Carlos Gerardo Lopez (Dash I/O) - Expected: 61:39
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Manuel Alejandro Sánchez Romo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 85% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Dash I/O | 60% | Win |
| R9 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.