Cindra, Dracai of Retribution at National Championship 2025

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Fernando Valenzuela

13th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

4.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jesus Huerta (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Luis Angel Jiménez Barrios (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gaston Zagursky (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Emiliano Tatan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Joseph Sierra (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Luis Manuel García Luna Perez (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.13
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.70
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.82
R9	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.98

Vigneo Guzman

31st • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Roberto Gael Busnelli Cifuentes (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tomas Espejel (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Manuel Curiel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Joseph Sierra (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs OMAR MATA (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Carlo Villarreal (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.60
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.27

Carlos Vazquez

14th • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Carlo Villarreal (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Octavio chaparro beltran (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mario Gomez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 76:24

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Rodrigo Iñiguez (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Diego de Alba Montes (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Osmar Bravo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.19
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.46
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R9	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Pedro Josafat Valdez De León

26th • 1-5-0

17%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Diego Alejandro Correa Miramontes (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Osmar Bravo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joseph Sierra (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Manuel Curiel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Luis Angel Jiménez Barrios (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs César Barajas (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.13
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Liz Suastes

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs luis alberto de la rosa muñoz (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tomas Espejel (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.86

Roberto Busnelli

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Sanchez (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rafael Eduardo Jaimes Hurtado (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 31:69

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jesus Huerta (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.