National Championship 2025 - Mexico - Fang, Dracai of Blades (CC)

Fang, Dracai of Blades

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Miguel Rubio

3rd • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.9

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Braulio Mora (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jesus Roman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tulio Marquez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Osmar Bravo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Eduardo Daniel García Reyes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs David Lewis (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Manuel Curiel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 71:29

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Tulio Marquez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.15
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.24
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.74
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R9	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.01
R10	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.61
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

OMAR MATA

29th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.3

Surp

4.2

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tulio Marquez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luis Canche (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs luis alberto de la rosa muñoz (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs David Vargas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Vigneo Guzman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs HIROKI ASAUMI (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.39
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.56
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.90
R9	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Saúl Orozco Albiter

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.5

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Manuel Alejandro Sánchez Romo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Luis Eduardo Garcia Mena (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Luis Angel Vazquez (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ernesto Manzur (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.51
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.